Wheat Futures Market Insights and Global Production Growth - Business

Wheat Futures and Global Production

Wheat futures saw a decline in overnight trading as the U.S. harvest progresses and Russia 's production outlook improves . The U.S. winter wheat crop harvest has reached 76 % , exceeding the five - year average . The USDA raised its forecast for global stockpiles by the end of the 2024/2025 marketing year to 257.2 million metric tons . Additionally , the agency raised its outlook for U.S. inventories to 23.3 million metric tons.

 Russian grain output is predicted to be better than previously expected , with production forecasted at 130.5 million metric tons . The consultant SovEcon raised its forecast for wheat production to 84.2 million tons.

Wheat futures for September delivery fell to .44 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade , while Kansas City futures lost 4 to .62 a bushel . Corn futures for December delivery rose to .18 a bushel , and soybean futures for November delivery fell to 0.61 a bushel . Soy meal lost 50 to 20.10 a short ton , while soy oil was down 0.16 to 43.94 a pound.

Ethanol Production Decline

Ethanol production fell in the week through July 19 , with output declining to an average of 1.095 million barrels a day . Production in the Midwest , the largest producing region , dropped to 1.035 million barrels . Ethanol stockpiles increased to 23.723 million barrels , the highest level since May 17.

In the Midwest , output dropped to 1.035 million barrels , on average , from 1.046 million the week prior . Gulf Coast production fell to 26,000 barrels a day from 28,000 , and West Coast output declined to 9,000 barrels from 10,000 the previous week . East Coast output remained steady at 12,000 barrels a day , on average , and Rocky Mountain production rose to 12,000 barrels from 10,000 barrels a week earlier.

Weather Warning in the Northern Plains

The National Weather Service issued excessive heat warnings , red flag warnings , and heat advisories for parts of Montana and western North Dakota and South Dakota . Heat indexes are forecasted to reach 108F in parts of central and eastern Montana and from 98F to 102F in western South Dakota . Low humidity is expected to create tinderbox - like conditions.

In western South Dakota , critical fire weather conditions are expected with relative humidity falling as low as 8 % and winds averaging 10 to 25 mph . Elevated fire conditions are forecasted for tomorrow in western South Dakota.